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By Dec 31, 2030 98.9%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
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Verouderd7 jan 25, 04:56 UTC1 jan 32, 05:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
PolymarketSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
Polymarket[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurRegels
Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).
- In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
- Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
- Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
- Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
- The options would resolve as follows:
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+24.5pt89%
- 2026+59.0pt82%
- September 30, 2026+56.0pt63%
- Totaal volume
- € 93,7K
- 24u volume
- € 59,5K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.9pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt22.9%
- Grok+3.2pt8.6%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,2 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+53.0pt93%
- 2026+53.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026+51.5pt57%
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.25%-7.0pt88%
- Above 2.45%79%
- Above 2.6%+16.0pt56%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 60,8K
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture50.5%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer27.1%
- No solution by Dec 31, 202710.3%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 32,3K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,4 mln.
- Tencent market share this week
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched??
- Manifold Markets prijst By Dec 31, 2030 op 99% per 10 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? afgewikkeld?
- When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2032 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).