Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 76.6%
Voorspellers
17
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 19 uur geleden
Verouderd12 jun 26, 19:23 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will the next Claude Fable be released?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
FutuurRegels
Resolves to % equal to the verified score released for Claude Fable 5 for ARC-AGI-3 on https://arcprize.org/leaderboard.
- If they release multiple scores (e.g. “Low”, “High”, “Max”), this resolves to the highest score.
- If they release a “Mythos 5” score instead (with no expectation of releasing a separate Fable score) then will resolve to that.
- If they release separate Mythos 5 and Fable 5 scores, then this will resolve to the Fable score.
- Resolves “early” when the score is released, or N/A if they announce that they will never benchmark it for some reason.
