Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 72%
Voorspellers
17
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd12 jun 26, 19:23 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Regels
Resolves to % equal to the verified score released for Claude Fable 5 for ARC-AGI-3 on https://arcprize.org/leaderboard.
- If they release multiple scores (e.g. “Low”, “High”, “Max”), this resolves to the highest score.
- If they release a “Mythos 5” score instead (with no expectation of releasing a separate Fable score) then will resolve to that.
- If they release separate Mythos 5 and Fable 5 scores, then this will resolve to the Fable score.
- Resolves “early” when the score is released, or N/A if they announce that they will never benchmark it for some reason.
Open markten
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 72% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3? afgewikkeld?
- What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves to % equal to the verified score released for Claude Fable 5 for ARC-AGI-3 on https://arcprize.org/leaderboard.