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October 53.1%-0.7ptKoploper van 6 uitkomsten
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4
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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7d wijziging
-0.7 pts
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Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd19 mei 26, 11:51 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?
Manifold MarketsHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
PolymarketWill the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season produce at least 3 hurricanes by October 15?
Manifold MarketsWhich storm names used in the 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
PolymarketWhen will the next Atlantic hurricane form?
KalshiRegels
Activity is measured in accumulated cyclone energy (ACE).
- If a storm is active across two distinct months, I’ll do my best to estimate the breakdown of ACE into the two months.
- I may ask Claude Opus 4.7 for assistance in resolving the question if needed.
- Source for resolution: https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic
- In the unlikely case of a tie, I will use the number of storms in a month.
- In case of an even unlikelier subsequent tie, I will use the number of active days in a month.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 241,3K
- 24u volume
- € 128K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 349,4K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season??
- Manifold Markets prijst October op 53% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season? afgewikkeld?
- What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season? wordt naar verwachting op 30 november 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Activity is measured in accumulated cyclone energy (ACE).