Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 77%
Voorspellers
24
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd29 jun 26, 00:09 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Regels
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran.
- Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
- Even upon the signing of such agreement, if there is the exchanging of the bombing, attacks, blockades, assassinations, drone striking, jibs and the jabs, etc. within a 45-day period, it is considered NOT A FUCKING PERMANENT PEACE DEAL.
- It should be very easy to be understanding how this could be resolving.
Open markten
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 470,8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 35,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 100,1K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 77% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket] afgewikkeld?
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket] wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket] afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.