Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 99%
Voorspellers
35
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 minuten geleden
1 okt 22, 15:22 UTC2 jan 29, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028
Manifold MarketsWhich firearm will receive the most votes in Idaho's State Gun advisory question?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiRegels
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2029.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, the half-life of the cost to invest here is about a month
- Close date updated to 2029-01-01 11:59 pm
Open markten
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt30.3%
- <40-5.5pt12.1%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,9K
- 24u volume
- € 25,3K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Totaal volume
- € 6,8K
- 24u volume
- € 5,8K
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane95%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Tariff86%
+13 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 6,1K
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Totaal volume
- € 18,1K
- 24u volume
- € 989,4
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Totaal volume
- € 15,4K
- 24u volume
- € 952,4
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 136,2K
- 24u volume
- € 247
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029?
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 99% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029 afgewikkeld?
- This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029 wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2029.