Waarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 24 okt 2026, 15:00 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
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Nee 58.2%
Voorspellers
14
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd2 sep 26, 20:00 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRegels
NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!
- Waymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023.
- To define fully autonomous, I'll use the following definition:
- No human operates any direct controls inside the vehicle like the steering wheel or pedals
- No human in the car actively monitors the driving being ready to intervene
- Must be of a non-trivial distance (e.g. crossing the parking lot does not count)