Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 95.2%
Voorspellers
562
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 minuten geleden
11 jun 25, 05:06 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2027?
Manifold MarketsThe first fully autonomous vehicle will be sold to consumers in 2026 — but it won’t be from Tesla
Manifold MarketsWill fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiRegels
NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!
- Waymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023.
- To define fully autonomous, I'll use the following definition:
- No human operates any direct controls inside the vehicle like the steering wheel or pedals
- No human in the car actively monitors the driving being ready to intervene
- Must be of a non-trivial distance (e.g. crossing the parking lot does not count)
Open markten
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,3 mln.
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 802,6K
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Totaal volume
- € 736,5K
- 24u volume
- € 585,6K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Zal Tesla in 2026 meer volledig autonome ritten hebben dan Waymo??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 95% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Zal Tesla in 2026 meer volledig autonome ritten hebben dan Waymo? afgewikkeld?
- Zal Tesla in 2026 meer volledig autonome ritten hebben dan Waymo? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Zal Tesla in 2026 meer volledig autonome ritten hebben dan Waymo? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!