SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
One-OffAIChinaTechGeopolitiek3mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 77.3%
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Verouderd9 okt 25, 23:08 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis).
- If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 77% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis) afgewikkeld?
- SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis) wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis) afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis).