Deze markt is beslist: 5-7.5 (88.6%)
Afgewikkeld: 24 jul 2026, 23:32
Door provider geverifieerde afwikkeling
CoinRithm heeft provider-onderbouwd bewijs voor de winnaar en afwikkelingstijd van deze markt.
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling5-7.5 88.6%+11.4ptKoploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
11
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 26 dagen geleden
Verouderd9 apr 26, 16:4924 jul 26, 23:32
Waarschijnlijkheidstijdlijn
>501.1%
40-501.1%
30-401.1%
25-301.1%
20-251.1%
15-201.3%
10-151.9%
7.5-101.5%
5-7.588.6%
<51%
88.6%
1.9%
1.5%
1.3%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1%
Regels
This market will resolve to the RATIO of the highest 50% time horizon, to the highest 80% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Mythos model to appear on METR's graph.
- 'Mythos' includes any Claude model that sits above 'Opus' in Anthropic's naming scheme, even if Anthropic ends up calling it something other than Mythos.
- Notably, Opus 4.6 had far higher ratio (nearly 12:1) than earlier models (2024 models typically had 3-5:1) Will this trend continue or reverse? Is reliability improving over time?
- Mythos 50% time horizon: https://manifold.markets/jim/claude-mythos-metr-50-time-horizon Will any model exceed a 3 hr 80% time horizon in 2026: https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-an-ai-model-reach-a-3
- [image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
- [link preview]Update 2026-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on Claude Fable 5's 50%/80% horizon ratio if METR releases that evaluation.
Open markten
Chainlink
KALSHIWhich of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?
- Chainlink (LINK)+11.0pt42%
- Ripple (XRP)+10.0pt36%
- Ethereum (ETH)-1.0pt34%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 546K
- 24u volume
- € 3,3K
POLYMARKETWhat price will Chainlink hit in 2026?
- ↑ 14+8.4pt100%
- ↓ 12+22.4pt100%
- ↓ 10+32.5pt100%
+9 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWhat price will Chainlink hit in August?
- ↑ 10+46.5pt100%
- ↓ 8100%
- ↑ 12+24.0pt51%
+7 extra uitkomsten
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich cryptocurrencies will have a market cap of at least $100 billion at the end of 2026?
- Bitcoin94.9%
- Tether USDt93.2%
- Ethereum87.7%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,8K
- 24u volume
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich cryptocurrencies will have obviously failed by the end of 2026? (Add your own)
- LINK - Chainlink50%
- XLM - Stellar50%
- Polkadot47.6%
+11 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 3,2K
- 24u volume
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat will happen as a result of the Charlie Kirk assassination?
- Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st100%
- Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom100%
- Evan permabanned from Manifold100%
+59 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 16,8K
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon?
- Manifold Markets prijst 5-7.5 op 89% per 25 juli 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon afgewikkeld?
- Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon wordt naar verwachting op 24 juli 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market will resolve to the RATIO of the highest 50% time horizon, to the highest 80% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Mythos model to appear on METR's graph.