Outcome of the 2026 US Midterm election
One-OffPolitiekVerkiezingAmerikaanse politiekAmerikaanse tussentijdse verkiezingen 20263mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Democrats control Congress 63.9%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Democrats control Congress 63.9%Voorspellers
98
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
-3.1 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd4 jul 23, 14:47 UTC31 jan 27, 23:59 UTC
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FutuurRegels
Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the Wikipedia page for the United States Congress: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress.
- Independents will be counted based on which party they caucus with.
- A tie in the Senate will be resolved by the Vice President's party.
- Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Republican senators vote with the Democratic bloc more than 50% of the time, they will be counted as caucusing with Democrats and considered under Democratic control.
- While Wikipedia will be the primary source, the creator will use their judgment if facts substantially diverge from Wikipedia's assessment of "control".
- Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve immediately after the election is finalized based on Wikipedia's assessment of control at that time.
