Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
PolitiekOne-OffUS PoliticsVerkiezing2mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 57%
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd19 nov 25, 13:48 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House through the 2026 US Midterm elections?
FutuurWhat will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)
Manifold MarketsRepublican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if there is a difference of three percentage points or more between the final 'RCP Average' polling margin and the national popular vote margin at the 2026 elections for the United States House of Representatives.
- Clarifications
- The 'RCP Average' polling margin will be supplied by the 2026 Generic Congressional Vote page on the RealClearPolling website (see the 'spread' column).
- The national popular vote margin is the margin (in percentage points) between the Democratic and Republican parties.
- A difference of 'three percentage points or more' must not be a difference that merely rounds up to three percentage points.
Open markten
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 606,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 721K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 extra uitkomsten
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 183,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 411,2K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 extra uitkomsten
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 57% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections? afgewikkeld?
- Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections? wordt naar verwachting op 30 november 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria