Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 90.6%
Voorspellers
52
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 23 minuten geleden
5 jun 24, 00:43 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Largest reported pay-package offered to an AI researcher before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI models will be able to complete 20-hour software engineering tasks in 2026
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRegels
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner states:
- I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.
- That doesn’t require believing in sci-fi; it just requires believing in straight lines on a graph.
- I will take "the work of an AI research/engineer" to mean all of the job duties of those roles, as we understand them today in 2024, but subject to small adjustments for the realities of 2027.
- Implicit in the claim behind this market is the idea that the world of 2027 could be strange enough that the claim no longer makes sense.
- I will use my best judgement.
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 91% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner states: