Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 84.3%
Voorspellers
20
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd10 jun 24, 21:57 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
100GW AI training run before 2031?
Manifold Markets10GW AI training run before 2029?
Manifold MarketsGoogle-Amazon AI training partnership by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsChina will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that the largest AI training clusters will consume 1GW of electricity in ~2026.
- This market resolves YES if a training run of a single AI model consumes 1GW+ of power sustained through most of the training run.
- This power cost includes overhead to run the data center, such as cooling.
- This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):
- @/Tossup/lasa-will-models-be-able-to-do-the
- @/Tossup/lasa-100b-ai-training-cluster-by-th