Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 67.5%
Voorspellers
16
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd10 jun 24, 22:00 UTC1 jan 31, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
10GW AI training run before 2029?
Manifold Markets1GW AI training run before 2027?
Manifold MarketsChina will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030
Manifold Markets$1T AI training cluster before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegels
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that the largest AI training clusters will consume 100GW of electricity in ~2030.
- This market resolves YES if a training run of a single AI model consumes 100GW+ of power sustained through most of the training run.
- This power cost includes overhead to run the data center, such as cooling.
- This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):
- @/Tossup/lasa-will-models-be-able-to-do-the
- @/Tossup/lasa-100b-ai-training-cluster-by-th