Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 95.4%
Voorspellers
50
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd5 jun 24, 00:50 UTC1 jan 29, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
$1T AI training cluster before 2031?
Manifold Markets10GW AI training run before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegels
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner estimates that the largest training clusters will cost hundreds of billions of dollars around 2028.
- Clarifications:
- $100B worth of computers and associated data center infrastructure (e.g. building, cooling, networking; does not include the cost of the power plant)
- Computers must be networked together and training one model.
- They do not need to synchronize weights at each gradient step.
- Value of data centers will be estimated with reasonable depreciation.