Israel election: Who will be the next prime minister?
1.0 ptn (24u)PolitiekOne-OffVerkiezingMidden-Oosten2mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingHung Knesset (political deadlock) 52.5%+1.0ptKoploper van 7 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
178
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+23.2 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 42 minuten geleden
15 jul 26, 18:59 UTC30 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially sworn in as the Prime Minister of Israel by the Knesset following the next legislative election (scheduled for October 27, 2026, or sooner if a snap election is triggered beforehand).
- "Sworn In" Definition: The resolution will be determined by the first person who successfully forms a government and takes the oath of office in the Knesset.
- In the event of a rotational premiership agreement, the individual who serves as Prime Minister first will be the resolving winner.
- Hung Knesset: This option will resolve to YES if the Knesset elected in the next election fails to form a governing coalition within the legally mandated timeframe.
- A caretaker Prime Minister continuing to serve in an interim capacity during this political deadlock does not count as being sworn in for a new term.
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
- Ook beschikbaar op Kalshi — Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? · No one 46%
- Ook beschikbaar op Manifold Markets — Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Gadi Eisenkot 56%
- Ook beschikbaar op Futuur — Israel’s next prime minister after the 2026 election · Benjamin Netanyahu 41%
- Ook beschikbaar op Limitless — Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after next election? · Benjamin Netanyahu 43%
- Ook beschikbaar op PredictIt — Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?