Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
2031 12.2%Koploper van 19 uitkomsten
2031 12.2%Voorspellers
17
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd14 okt 24, 14:05 UTC31 dec 40, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold Markets[don't bet yet, finalizing details] Will a Musk Company or Elon do large geoengineering projects for global warming?
Manifold MarketsWill we (temporarily) cross the 3 degrees celcius of global warming by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Average Global Temperature for any year be greater than 1.75 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040?
ForecastExWill the Average Global Temperature for any year be greater than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040?
ForecastExRegels
This market will resolve according to the Global surface temperature chart on Wikipedia’s English page on Climate Change.
- Specifically, the market will resolve to the year in which the red line in the chart (’20-year-smoothing’) first reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius.
- This approach aligns with the IPCC definition of the 1.5 degree target.
- Should the chart be no longer available on Wikipedia, the market will resolve using another neutral source that tracks average long-term warming compared to pre-industrial temperatures.
