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Some year after 2040. 31.1%Koploper van 21 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
147
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd2 jul 23, 11:10 UTC16 feb 41, 13:48 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?
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KalshiRegels
Superintelligent AGI: An AI system surpassing majority human intellect in most or all fields, capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across various tasks beyond single-domain specialization.
- 'Majority of AI researchers' refers to 51% or more of active, globally published AI researchers recognized by reputable sources such as established research organizations, academic journals, or comprehensive surveys.
- The market resolves when such a survey points to a year (even retrospectively) where most AI researchers agreed on the existence of AGI.
- Non-reputable or small-scale surveys will be disregarded.
- If the survey indicates AGI was realized before the market's inception, the market resolves as N/A.
