If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?
AIManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingThere was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI. 30.6%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
229
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd22 feb 23, 19:11 UTC1 jan 00, 08:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?
Manifold MarketsUN agency for artificial intelligence created in 2026?
FutuurWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiRegels
This market resolves once either of the following are true:
- AI seems about as intelligent as it's ever plausibly going to get.
- There appears to be no more significant danger from AI.
- It resolves to the option that seems closest to the explanation of why we didn't all die.
- If multiple reasons seem like they all significantly contributed, I may resolve to a mix among them.
- If you want to know what option a specific scenario would fall under, describe it to me and we'll figure out what it seems closest to.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason??
- Manifold Markets prijst There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI. op 31% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason? afgewikkeld?
- If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2200 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market resolves once either of the following are true: