If the Netherlands has a referendum on leaving the EU, will it favor leaving?
PolitiekOne-OffVerkiezingEuropa1jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 89.1%
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26
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd23 nov 23, 01:14 UTC29 nov 27, 07:59 UTC
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MetaculusRegels
One of Geert Wilder's desires if he becomes PM is a referendum on the Netherlands' EU membership.
- Wilders’ election program includes calls for a referendum on the Netherlands leaving the European Union, a total halt to accepting asylum-seekers and migrant pushbacks at Dutch borders.
- Resolves N/A if such a referendum does not happen before 2027.
- Resolves YES if over 50% of the popular vote votes for leaving the EU (even if a different threshold is chosen or aggregation is done at some district level).
- Resolves NO if less than 50% favor leaving.
- If it's literally exactly equal to the vote, I'll resolve to 50%.
