IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
AIOne-Off2mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 20:50 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 64%
Voorspellers
59
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 uur geleden
Verouderd31 jul 23, 23:41 UTC2 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
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This is a market that is attempting to evaluate the probability of AI wiping out humanity by 2030 conditional on artificial superintelligence existing.
- If artificial superintelligence does not exist by 2030, this market will resolve to N/A. This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027 as do the linked markets.
- Inspired by https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1686140175993487364
- Related markets: https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r?r=RWxpZXplcll1ZGtvd3NreQ https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-artificial-superintelligence-e
- [link preview]
