Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling1 31.5%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
16
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd2 jan 26, 21:50 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
KalshiWill Aliens be discovered in the next three years?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these hypothetical mathematical objects will be shown to exist with an explicit example before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy when will we launch an interstellar vehicle?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRegels
Resolves to the number of “Confirmed” interstellar objects discovered within 2026.
- If there’s a debate on what constitutes an interstellar object, I will use this Wikipedia article as a resolution source:
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object
- So far, there has not been much debate about the observed interstellar objects.
- Objects that had previously collided with earth and are discovered from archival or geological data would not count for the purposes of this market.
- If one is discovered close to the end of the year and doesn’t show up on Wikipedia until 2027, I may wait a bit after market close to see if it’s confirmed (if there’s doubt).
Open markten
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 103,1K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Totaal volume
- € 57,4K
- 24u volume
- € 57,4K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Totaal volume
- € 817,9K
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor How many interstellar objects will be discovered in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst 1 op 32% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt How many interstellar objects will be discovered in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- How many interstellar objects will be discovered in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt How many interstellar objects will be discovered in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves to the number of “Confirmed” interstellar objects discovered within 2026.