Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 95%
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd5 sep 25, 19:24 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by which date?
PolymarketWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketWill Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiRegels
The market resolves YES if Hezbollah's arsenal is substantially eliminated by the end of 2026.
- By "substantially eliminated" I mean that over 90% of Hezbollah's weapons have been either destroyed, confiscated, or voluntary relinquished to the Lebanese government by the close date, and the group no longer poses a military threat to the State of Lebanon or credibly resist the Lebanese armed forces.
- I will make this determination by studying mainstream news sources (e.g., NYT, CNN) for information regarding Hezbollah's weapons.
- 1) If there is ongoing armed conflict between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) on the close date, the market will resolve NO, unless that armed conflict is at the "mopping up" phase by the LAF.
- 2) If some weapons have been relinquished but there is a dispute as to whether a substantial amount remains hidden in Hezbollah's arsenal, I will base my analysis on whether Hezbollah still appears to act as if it is an organization with a substantial military wing.
- For example, if there is still some terroritory that the LAF declines to enter due to it being a Hezbollah stronghold, that would strongly indicate that Hezbollah still has some weaponry and likely be considered a NO.
Open markten
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 23,1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 312,6K
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Totaal volume
- € 6,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 153,3K
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 95% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The market resolves YES if Hezbollah's arsenal is substantially eliminated by the end of 2026.