Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingSome current (2025) occupations, though, will no longer exist. 89.5%Koploper van 9 uitkomsten
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22
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd4 jul 25, 14:01 UTC31 dec 28, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Gary Marcus's Brier Score of 2024+2025 predictions be lower than 0.50 by EOY2028?
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PolymarketRegels
For his 2024 predictions, his own resolutions are somewhat debatable.
- So I will try to resolve this by "general consensus" of some sort.
- As that is not super well-defined, I will not be betting.