Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 86.4%
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13
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Vertraagd27 jun 25, 18:19 UTC3 jan 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Regels
Will a federal law that preempts state-level AI regulation pass by the end of this Congress (i.e. January 3, 2027)?
- I intend to take a broad view on what "preemption" means.
- For instance:
- This question resolves YES if a law passes that penalizes states for passing or enforcing regulations on AI, even if it does not ban states from doing so.
- This question resolves YES if only some kinds of AI regulations get preempted (so long as the legislation preempts AI regulation in particular, as opposed to preempting some other class of state-level regulation that just so happens to preempt some kinds of AI regulation as well).
- For example, the Lummis bill has a narrow preemption clause that preempts enforcement of state laws against developers under certain narrow circumstances (see page 9, line 18 here).
Open markten
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Totaal volume
- € 12,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 182,3K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,4 mln.
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 86% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 3 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Will a federal law that preempts state-level AI regulation pass by the end of this Congress (i.e. January 3, 2027)?