Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 77.7%
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30
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 16 uur geleden
Verouderd22 jun 23, 04:40 UTC1 jan 29, 22:43 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2029?
Manifold MarketsDoes an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2029?
Manifold MarketsDoes an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
-"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.
- -"an": must be a single event (we are not combining unrelated smaller disasters).
- -"AI": must be a system (or multiple systems) that relied on artificial intelligence for its decisions.
- -"disaster": the AI must've done something that most smart people would say is malicious, reckless, or poor judgement.
- Unless the AI was directly following orders by a human who we agree was authorized to give those orders, then that doesn't count.
- -"kill": they must have deceased, not merely been injured/poisoned/etc.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 78% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029? afgewikkeld?
- Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: -"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.