Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 91.5%
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28
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd5 mrt 24, 12:47 UTC1 jul 28, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2029
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Manifold MarketsIran invades Kuwait by which date?
PolymarketWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by which date?
PolymarketWill US annex any territory in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
Referring to land controlled by Russia today in 2024.
- So, things like talking action to reclaim land from some earlier set of borders would count.
- YES requires credible sources, battles or clear Chinese troops on the other side of the border.
- Or, China having bombed anything on the Russian side, or does drone strikes.
- Or other kinetic attacks.
- Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate.
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 470,8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 35,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 100,1K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 92% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028 afgewikkeld?
- China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028 wordt naar verwachting op 1 juli 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Referring to land controlled by Russia today in 2024.