Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 77.3%
Voorspellers
6
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd1 jul 25, 21:48 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the HappyHorse-1.0 weights become publicly available before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketNext Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketWill a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the model weights for Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus are publicly available by December 31, 2030. "Publicly available" means that the complete model weights are accessible to the general public without significant restrictions, such as - Through an official release by Anthropic - A public torrent of a leak of the weights
- A "significant restriction" would be something like "X anon on Discord has a copy of the weights but is only providing them to close friends" or "You must go through XYZ 2-month approval process by Anthropic to receive access"
- Additional constraints: - It must be available for at least 7 days, but the market tracks the start date.
- So if it's available for 7 days starting December 30th, this will resolve YES.
- But if it was only ever available for 1 hour on Jan 12th 2027, and nobody made a known public reupload, the market would resolve NO - If the model architecture is particularly unconventional, associated inference code must be available, such that the knowledge of how to run the model isn't gate-kept
