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  3. By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese?
Manifold Markets

By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese?

One-OffAITechWetenschap3j
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsGeen KYC
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Manifold Markets
01.01.2026 0%
Koploper van 9 uitkomsten
Voorspellers

4

Vraagtype

multiple choice

Methodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Brontype

Voorspelling

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 4 dagen geleden

Verouderd
10 okt 25, 11:001 jan 30, 23:59

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Gekozen uitkomst

01.07.20266%

Regels

This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based (’neuralese’) reasoning.
  • Neuralese Reasoning Definition
  • A reasoning model uses "neuralese reasoning" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).
  • Specific Resolution Cases
  • Counts as neuralese reasoning: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers

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Regels

This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based (’neuralese’) reasoning.
  • Neuralese Reasoning Definition
  • A reasoning model uses "neuralese reasoning" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).
  • Specific Resolution Cases
  • Counts as neuralese reasoning: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers