Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling01.01.2030 80.5%Koploper van 9 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
7
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+11.6 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 minuten geleden
10 okt 25, 11:001 jan 30, 23:59
Trends
0%
Regels
This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring
- This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based (’neuralese’) reasoning.
- Neuralese Reasoning Definition
- A reasoning model uses "neuralese reasoning" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).
- Specific Resolution Cases
- Counts as neuralese reasoning: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers
Open markten
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- September 30-0.1pt99%
- October 31+0.6pt99%
- September 15+0.6pt98%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 457,4K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-4.0pt59.2%
- ChatGPT-1.3pt24.3%
- Grok+0.9pt7.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 8,7 mln.
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.1pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+27.7pt37%
- September 17+22.2pt23%
- September 24+22.1pt23%
+27 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+5.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 149,2K
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese??
- Manifold Markets prijst 01.01.2030 op 81% per 4 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese? afgewikkeld?
- By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring