By 2028 will there be another assassination attempt on Donald Trump?
Amerikaanse politiekOne-OffSportMisdaad en justitieGolf1jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 60.9%
Voorspellers
5
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 minuten geleden
13 sep 26, 11:12 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if there is another confirmed, deliberate assassination attempt on Donald Trump occurring between September 13, 2026, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.
- To qualify for a YES resolution, an event must meet the following criteria:
- Target and Intent: The act must be a physical, deliberate attempt to take the life of Donald Trump.
- Lethal Means: The attempt must involve a weapon or method capable of causing death (e.g., firearms, explosives, poisoning, or direct physical assault).
- Official Characterization: The incident must be officially characterized as an "assassination attempt" or "attempted assassination" by a major U.S. federal or state law enforcement agency (such as the FBI, U.S. Secret Service, or Department of Justice), or result in federal charges explicitly for the attempted assassination of Donald Trump (e.g., under 18 U.S. Code § 1751).
