Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 64.4%
Voorspellers
14
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd21 jul 25, 20:16 UTC2 jan 45, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Holden Karnofsky create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
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PolymarketIn 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Copying from Caplan's blog post:
- Holden wins $5000 if, by the end of 2044, there has been at least one year for which it is plausible — according to Bryan Caplan — that at least one of the following was true:
- Real Gross World Product was (conceptually, as opposed to officially) at least 4x the real GWP of 2024.
- Or: real GWP was (conceptually, as opposed to officially) at most 1/2 the real GWP of 2024.
- Otherwise, Bryan wins $1000.
