Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 83.4%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 17 minuten geleden
22 mrt 26, 20:30 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
When will LLMs be able to translate the Food Tongue conlang?
Manifold MarketsWhen will LLMs be able to generate formal proof for sudoku solver?
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KalshiWill we have high-quality real-time age transitions for video calls before 2026 ends?
Manifold MarketsWill real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolves yes if before 2027 an LLM can play video games that require real-time reactions with some competence.
- To avoid subjectivity, I will impose the following standards:
- The LLM must first navigate to playsnake.org and select worm
- The LLM must be able to achieve a median score of at least 50 across 5 consecutive runs.
- The LLM can try as many times as it likes as long as it hits this benchmark eventually
- I'm not paying more than $20 per month for an AI subscription, so models requiring this will not be tested unless somebody does it for me.
