Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by:
PolitiekOne-OffUS PoliticsVerkiezing12mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingSeptember 15, 2027 86.2%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
12
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+36.2 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd15 sep 26, 19:37 UTC16 sep 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
0%
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom ever become the Democratic nominee for president?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data]
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRegels
As of market creation, Gavin Newsom as Democratic nominee is trading for 18% on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
- And 13% on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28
- An option in this market resolves yes if the price differential between the two sites closes to 1% or less, by the date listed.
- If a price differential > 1% develops in the opposite direction between the two sites, that is also sufficient for resolution yes.
- If one option in this market resolves yes, all subsequent options will also resolve yes at that point in time.
- Time for resolution will be midnight in pacific time on the specified date (i.e. at the very beginning of the day, not the end).
Open markten
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.5pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,1 mld.
- 24u volume
- € 1,8 mln.
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+44.0pt57.4%
- Nicolás Maduro-40.9pt41.6%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt16.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.7%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 extra uitkomsten
- What will Trump say this week?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by:?
- Manifold Markets prijst September 15, 2027 op 86% per 20 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by: afgewikkeld?
- Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by: wordt naar verwachting op 16 september 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by: afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: As of market creation, Gavin Newsom as Democratic nominee is trading for 18% on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028