KalshiBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereist2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitGeen actuele koersen
Gegevens van 9 sep 2026, 14:45 UTC · beleid pm-quality-3
Huidige impliciete kans
Reform UK minority + Conservative support 15%Koploper van 19 uitkomsten
Marktkwaliteit
42 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
—
Liquiditeit
€ 1,8K
Lage liquiditeitSpread
4.9 pt
Gematigde spreadMarktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 minuten geleden
21 mei 26, 14:00 UTC1 jan 30, 15:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
In which year will King Charles III cease to be King of the United Kingdom?
Manifold MarketsWill United Kingdom join BRICS before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Wales leave the United Kingdom before 2030?
Manifold MarketsUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiWill Ye visit The United Kingdom this year?
KalshiWill the United Kingdom join the EU?
KalshiRegels
If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
- This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
- Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
- Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
- A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).
Open markten
ElectionsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.4%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-2.0pt15.3%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.3%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 183,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 564,9K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt52%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt45.1%
- Renan Santos+0.3pt2%
+16 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-0.9pt96.1%
- Dan McKee+3.3pt3.9%
- Gregory Stevens0%
- Totaal volume
- € 644,2K
- 24u volume
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.4pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt37.5%
- Édouard Philippe-1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.5%
+38 extra uitkomsten
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Next government of the United Kingdom??
- Kalshi prijst Reform UK minority + Conservative support op 15% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Next government of the United Kingdom? afgewikkeld?
- Next government of the United Kingdom? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Next government of the United Kingdom? afgewikkeld?
- Kalshi wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.