KalshiBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereist2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitGeen handelsactiviteit
Gegevens van 8 sep 2026, 22:15 UTC · beleid pm-quality-3
Huidige impliciete kans
Above $500 billion 0%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
Marktkwaliteit
39 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
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Liquiditeit
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Liquiditeit onbekendSpread
4.0 pt
Gematigde spreadMarktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 minuten geleden
26 aug 26, 19:00 UTC4 feb 30, 13:29 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
US trade deficit for 2026?
KalshiUS trade deficit for 2027
KalshiUS trade deficit for 2032
KalshiUS Trade Deficit in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will join the CPTPP trade agreement before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegels
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2029 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
Afwikkeling via:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis.
- It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
- Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit.
- For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
- Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2029.
Open markten
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 89,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 541,2K
- 24u volume
- € 30,7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 334,2K
- 24u volume
- € 12,8K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 extra uitkomsten
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 77,9K
- 24u volume
- € 5,5K
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor US trade deficit for 2029?
- Kalshi prijst Above $500 billion op 0% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt US trade deficit for 2029 afgewikkeld?
- US trade deficit for 2029 wordt naar verwachting op 4 februari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt US trade deficit for 2029 afgewikkeld?
- Kalshi wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2029 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.