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Gegevens van 8 sep 2026, 17:10 UTC · beleid pm-quality-3
Huidige impliciete kans
Above $500 billion 0%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
Marktkwaliteit
31 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
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Liquiditeit
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Liquiditeit onbekendSpread
7.0 pt
Brede spreadMarktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 minuten geleden
26 aug 26, 15:30 UTC4 feb 28, 13:25 UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Regels
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2027 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
Afwikkeling via:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis.
- It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
- Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit.
- For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
- Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2027.
Open markten
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52.5%
- No change-3.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 89,5 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 323,8K
- 24u volume
- € 25,3K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 523K
- 24u volume
- € 22K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt54.3%
- September Meeting+3.0pt45.7%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
- 1.5-1.7%-9.9pt68.8%
- 1.8-2.0%+8.2pt26%
- 1.2-1.4%-3.0pt3.1%
+5 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the Citrini scenario happen?
- No83%
- Yes17%
- Totaal volume
- € 22,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 4,4K
- August Inflation US - Annual
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Egg prices up in August?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor US trade deficit for 2027?
- Kalshi prijst Above $500 billion op 0% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt US trade deficit for 2027 afgewikkeld?
- US trade deficit for 2027 wordt naar verwachting op 4 februari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt US trade deficit for 2027 afgewikkeld?
- Kalshi wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2027 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.