How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
2.0 ptn (24u)One-OffPolitiekUS PoliticsVerkiezing3mnd
KalshiBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereist2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGrof gekalibreerdHuidige impliciete kans2 67%-1.0ptKoploper van 4 uitkomsten
Marktkwaliteit
62 / 100
Gemiddelde kwaliteit24u volume
€ 1,3K
Liquiditeit
€ 177,5K
Hoge liquiditeitBied / Laat
21.0% / 26.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Brede spreadMarktdata
Bijgewerkt 23 minuten geleden
23 jan 26, 21:003 nov 26, 15:00
Trends
0%
Alleen virtueel geld, geen echt geldGeen financieel advies
Gekozen uitkomst
324%
Platforms vergelijken· 3
Gerangschikt op marktkwaliteit, dan liquiditeit en 24-uursvolume| Platform | Kwaliteit | Kans | vs. referentie | Volume 24u | Liquiditeit | Actualiteit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiDeze paginaBeste algemeen | Gemiddeld | 24% | 0pt | € 1,3K | € 177,5K | 23 minuten geleden | |
 Polymarket80% overeenkomst · geverifieerd | Laag | 79% | +55pt | € 0 | € 4K | 23 minuten geleden | Openen → |
Ook beschikbaar op Polymarket
How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
7.8 pts
-0.7pt79%
+7.8pt21%
+0.7pt19%
+3 extra uitkomsten
32 • Lage kwaliteitBrede spreadGemiddelde liquiditeit
Totaal volume€ 59,6K
24u volume€ 0
POLYMARKETRegels
If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
- To be included, candidates must:
- Be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; Be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; Lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
- In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
- For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
- In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
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Volumetrend
$1.4k2 jul27d aan data28 jul
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If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
- To be included, candidates must:
- Be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; Be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; Lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
- In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
- For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
- In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.