How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
3.9 ptn (24u)PolitiekOne-OffUS PoliticsVerkiezing
PolymarketBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYC2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitGeen actuele koersen
Gegevens van 27 jul 2026, 16:40 UTC · beleid pm-quality-3
Huidige impliciete kans4-6 79%-0.3ptKoploper van 6 uitkomsten
Marktkwaliteit
32 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
€ 0
Liquiditeit
€ 3,7K
Gemiddelde liquiditeitBied / Laat
2.9% / 31.1%
Spread
28.2 pt
Brede spread7d wijziging
-0.1 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 24 minuten geleden
Trends
Alleen virtueel geld, geen echt geldGeen financieel advies
Gekozen uitkomst
4-679%
Platforms vergelijken· 3
Gerangschikt op marktkwaliteit, dan liquiditeit en 24-uursvolume| Platform | Kwaliteit | Kans | vs. referentie | Volume 24u | Liquiditeit | Actualiteit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBeste algemeen80% overeenkomst · geverifieerd | Gemiddeld | 29% | 0pt | € 88,2 | € 178,6K | 24 minuten geleden | Openen → |
| PolymarketDeze pagina | Laag | 79% | +50pt | € 0 | € 3,7K | 24 minuten geleden |
Ook beschikbaar op Kalshi
How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
1.9 pts3mnd
-1.0pt68.4%
+3.0pt29.6%
-1.9pt2%
+1 extra uitkomsten
71 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitStrakke spreadHoge liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit
Totaal volume€ 376,3K
24u volume€ 88,2
KALSHIRegels
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
- This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
- An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason.
- Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
Vergelijkingsgegevens zijn alleen informatief. Prijzen en liquiditeit kunnen variëren.
Volumetrend
$633 jul19d aan data27 jul
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
- This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
- An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason.
- Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.