2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?
PolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezingAmerikaanse tussentijdse verkiezingen 20264mnd
KalshiBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereistGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdMiddenprijs van geselecteerd orderboek
R+0.9 to D+0.9 · —
Geselecteerd orderboek laden…
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Opgeslagen prijs
R+0.9 to D+0.9 28%Koploper van 9 uitkomsten
R+0.9 to D+0.9 28%Marktkwaliteit
≤49 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
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Open interest
US$ 3,4K
Gemiddelde open interestBied / Laat
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R+0.9 to D+0.9Spread
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Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 minuten geleden
1 okt 26, 18:00 UTC1 mrt 27, 13:59 UTC
Grafiek en wijzigingen tonen opgeslagen historische kansen, niet het geselecteerde actuele orderboek.
Trends
Geselecteerde rij: middenprijs van het orderboek. Andere rijen: opgeslagen, mogelijk genormaliseerde referenties; wijzigingen over 24 uur gebruiken opgeslagen historie.
Voorwaarden van het handelsplatform
Bron: Kalshi
Deze voorwaarden zijn ter informatie; voor gesimuleerd handelen bij CoinRithm gelden eigen regels.
- Vervroegde sluiting:
- Ja
- Afwikkelingstermijn:
- 30m (ter informatie)
Marktdiepte · R+0.9 to D+0.9
Geselecteerd orderboek laden…
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
PolymarketIf Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the generic ballot on election day 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegels
If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -0.9 and 0.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The national House popular vote margin is the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election, as reported by the Clerk of the House, with each percentage taken over all votes cast; the margin is calculated from unrounded percentages and then rounded to one decimal place. The reference margin is the VoteHub 2026 generic congressional ballot margin (Democratic minus Republican, time-weighted) as displayed to one decimal place at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026. The value is the national House popular vote margin minus the reference margin: positive if Democrats outperform the reference margin and negative if Republicans do. Each range includes both of its endpoints.
Regels per uitkomst
- R+0.9 to D+0.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -0.9 and 0.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+1 to D+2.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between 1 and 2.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+1 to R+2.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -2.9 and -1 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+3 to R+4.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -4.9 and -3 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+3 to D+4.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between 3 and 4.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+7 or more
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is at least 7 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+5 to R+6.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -6.9 and -5 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+7 or more
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is below -6.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+5 to D+6.9
- If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between 5 and 6.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.