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  3. Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?
Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

14.8% (24u)Politiek
KalshiKalshiGeslotenBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereist2% kosten

Deze markt is beslist: No (100%)

Afgewikkeld: 1 jun 2026, 13:17

Winnende Uitkomst

No

Op 7 dagen afstand

—

Op 24 uur afstand

89%

Consensus
Huidige impliciete kans
Ja
Ja 0%-14.8%
Marktkwaliteit

36 / 100

Lage kwaliteit
24u volume

€ 608,6

Liquiditeit

€ 727,5

Lage liquiditeit
Bied / Laat

0.2% / 0.7%

Spread

250.0%

Brede spread
Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 11 dagen geleden

Verouderd
5 mrt 26, 15:0031 mei 27, 14:00

Waarschijnlijkheidstijdlijn

Yes0%
No100%
0%25%50%75%100%30 mei31 mei1 jun
Uitkomst24uKans
Ja
Ja
-14.8%
0%
Nee
Nee
100%

Deze markt is gesloten. Oefenhandel is alleen beschikbaar op open markten.

Regels

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
  • In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
  • In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
  • Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
  • The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.

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Regels

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
  • In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
  • In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
  • Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
  • The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.