FutuurBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensHuidige impliciete kans
Nee 92%
Nee 92%Marktkwaliteit
31 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
—
Liquiditeit
€ 381,2
Lage liquiditeitHandelaren
6
Reacties
0
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 minuut geleden
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US create a national AI regulator?
Kalshi[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Polymarket.com be fined by U.S. government regulatory agencies in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US create an antitrust safe harbor for AI safety & security collaboration by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegels
This event predicts whether the United States will officially establish a new federal regulatory body whose primary purpose is AI oversight by December 31, 2026.
- For this market, “creating a new regulatory body” means a legally binding action (e.g., federal legislation or an executive order) that forms a distinct government body with authority to create, implement, and enforce AI-related regulations/standards in the United States, including mechanisms such as review/approval requirements and enforcement penalties.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be the official text of the relevant U.S. law or executive action and the corresponding official U.S. government announcement.
- If, on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. government formally establishes such a distinct federal AI regulatory body (as defined above), this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Expanding the mandate of an existing agency does not qualify unless the action clearly establishes a distinct new body for AI oversight with the described enforcement remit; if a borderline case arises (e.g., an explicitly designated interim/preparatory body), Futuur will apply the market’s intent.
