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Ja 89%+1.0pt
Ja 89%+1.0ptMarktkwaliteit
33 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
€ 16,6
Liquiditeit
€ 819
Lage liquiditeitHandelaren
11
Reacties
0
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 minuut geleden
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will 2035 be the warmest year on record?
ForecastExWill 2027 be the warmest year on record?
ForecastExWill 2030 be the warmest year on record?
ForecastExWill 2030 be the warmest year on record?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?
Manifold MarketsWhere will October 2026 rank among the warmest Octobers on record (Copernicus ERA5)?
Manifold MarketsRegels
This event predicts whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record based on global average surface temperature measurements.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be NASA’s Global Temperature Index (GISTEMP) annual data release for 2026.
- If NASA’s data shows that 2026 has the highest global average temperature on record at the time of release, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If NASA ceases to publish this data or it is exceptionally unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on equivalent datasets from other major climate authorities, such as the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
- Resolution will reflect the substantive ranking of 2026’s temperature relative to prior years, not later data revisions.
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
2 handelsplatforms prijzen deze markt momenteel. De cross-platform referentiekans van CoinRithm voor CoinRithm-referentie is 65%. De spreiding tussen platforms is ongeveer 49 procentpunten.
CoinRithm-referentie 65% · 2 platforms · 49 pt spreiding tussen venues
