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32 / 100
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This event predicts whether Russian armed forces will take control of the city of Kyiv through kinetic military action at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official statements by the Ukrainian government or widely recognized international reporting confirming control of the city.
- If Russian forces gain full control of Kyiv through military force during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If Russia takes control of part but not all of Kyiv, Futuur will use its discretion to determine whether this constitutes effective control.
- Only kinetic military action will count; political agreements or non-kinetic influence will not.