PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
October 1 - 31, 52.9%+10.0ptIn testa tra 5 esitiCorretto per il margine: le quote grezze sommavano oltre il 100% e sono state normalizzate.
Qualità del mercato
65 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
7,7K €
Liquidità
4,3K €
Liquidità mediaSpread
4.0 pt
Spread moderatoCommenti
4
Variazione 7g
-15.5 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 minuti fa
10 ago 26, 15:38 UTC1 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
0%
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
PolymarketWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiWhich month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
PolymarketWill traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before January 1, 2027?
ForecastExWill traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before October 1, 2026?
ForecastExOn the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2026 Atlantic season storms reach?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS.
- A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
- "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC.
- Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
- The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold.
- A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.