PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Republican Party 93%In testa tra 8 esiti
Qualita del mercato
67 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
12,3 €
Liquidità
29,5K €
Alta liquiditàSpread
1.0 pt
Spread strettoComments
0
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 minuti fa
28 gen 26, 21:363 nov 26, 0:00
Trend
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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Regole
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
- Disponibile anche su Kalshi — IA-04 House winner? · Chris McGowan 90%
Mercati aperti
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+3.0pt18.9%
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.2%
+44 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 163 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 919,3K €
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance+0.9pt23%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.4pt14%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt11%
+125 altri esiti
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt23%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt15%
- Jon Ossoff-0.1pt15%
+125 altri esiti
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- Golf / Golfer / Golfing99%
- Sleepy Joe99%
- Kamala99%
+28 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 582,1K €
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham+4.0pt63.3%
- Ralph Norman-4.0pt28.4%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 12,7 Mln €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.49%
- J.D. Vance47%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
+125 altri esiti
- Volume totale
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per IA-04 House Election Winner?
- Polymarket quota Republican Party al 93% al 24 agosto 2026.
- Quando si risolve IA-04 House Election Winner?
- IA-04 House Election Winner dovrebbe risolversi il 3 novembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato IA-04 House Election Winner?
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- Dove altro è quotato IA-04 House Election Winner?
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Kalshi.