Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
GeopoliticaMetaculusChiusoDati di risoluzione non verificatiQuesto mercato si è risolto: No
Dati di risoluzione non verificati
Questo esito è inferito o non supportato da prove di regolamento di livello provider.
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 99.9%
Previsori
978
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Community forecast
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 146 giorni fa
Obsoleto15 nov 16, 19:46 UTC31 gen 27, 23:59 UTC
Cronologia delle Probabilità
Yes0.1%
No99.9%
99.9%
0.1%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).
- Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union.
- We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
- This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
- It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name
Mercati aperti
Geopolitics
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027??
- Metaculus quota No al 100% al 27 aprile 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027??
- Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027??
- Metaculus liquida questo mercato come segue: Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).