Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffSociety & Culture1aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 91.4%
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5
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto23 apr 26, 17:06 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will "Dario probably doesn't believe in superintell..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRegole
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a Disaster is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercati aperti
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt30.3%
- <40-5.5pt12.1%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3K €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Volume totale
- 6,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 5,8K €
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane95%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Tariff86%
+13 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 6,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume totale
- 18,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 989,4 €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume totale
- 15,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 952,4 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Volume totale
- 136,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 247 €
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 91% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.