Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 97.4%
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13
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 46 minuti fa
In ritardo18 ago 26, 09:59 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will world population reach 8.5 billion by end of year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the world population be 7 billion or less at any point before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the world population in 2030 be higher than 8.6 billion people?
Manifold MarketsWill the world's population reach 10 billion people by the end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketParis curfew effectively lifted by which date?
PolymarketRegole
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) routinely tracks and projects global demographic shifts.
- As debates around global population growth, resource sustainability, and shifting fertility rates intensify across social platforms, this market tracks a major near-term milestone: the world population officially crossing 8.3 billion.
- ### Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point prior to January 1, 2028, at 00:00 UTC, the United Nations Population Division (or its official real-time data instruments backed by UN DESA) reports or estimates that the global human population has reached or exceeded 8,300,000,000.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO on January 1, 2028, provided no such official figure has been published by the UN prior to that date.
- ### Fine Print & Edge Cases
