Previsione della comunità attuale
No 94.6%
Previsori
39
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo23 ott 24, 23:37 UTC24 ott 26, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
PolymarketWill any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold MarketsIs Peter Todd Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold MarketsWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?
KalshiWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
I believe that in less than two years we will know who Satoshi is.
- Tyler Cowen (2024), https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/10/does-it-matter-who-satoshi-was.html
- What matters is the state of affairs when this market closes.
- I have entered the close date as 2026-10-24 and will not change it.
- I will use my judgement to determine whether “we” know who Satoshi is.
- Public evidence available prior to market close that convinces me is sufficient.
Mercati aperti
CryptoPOLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.4pt100%
- 74,000+1.4pt100%
- 68,000100%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 936K €
- Volume 24h
- 714,5K €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt98%
- $25M+0.8pt95%
- $50M+10.0pt95%
+4 altri esiti
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $77,000 or above98%
+77 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 567,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 564,3K €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $79,365.65 target
- No84%
- Yes16%
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 482,8K €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 9am EDT?
- $78,700 or above99%
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,600 or above99%
+97 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 403K €
- Volume 24h
- 382,6K €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,2 Mln €
- What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin all time high by which date?
- Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 95% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction??
- Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction? dovrebbe risolversi il 24 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: I believe that in less than two years we will know who Satoshi is.