Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will we achieve AGI before Democrats win their next trifecta??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 63.9% al 20 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will we achieve AGI before Democrats win their next trifecta??

Will we achieve AGI before Democrats win their next trifecta? dovrebbe risolversi il 22 settembre 2033.

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

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Sì 63.9%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Aggiornato 11 minuti fa

14 set 24, 22:09 UTC22 set 33, 04:59 UTC

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Based on an aside from this post that mentioned the possibility of this happening: https://www.secondbest.ca/p/before-the-flood

This market resolves YES if an AGI exists, according to the market linked below, before the next Democratic governing trifecta begins.
@/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
I will defer to that market's judgement for all questions about whether a certain system is an AGI or not.
For this market, a Democratic governing trifecta means any period of time in which the Democratic caucus holds the majority in the U.S. House and Senate, and there is a Democratic president, unless the president is a lame duck president.
In other words, it doesn't count the brief time between the new Congress and the new president being sworn in if the incoming Congress and outgoing president are Democratic but the new president is not.